Yesterday, Shanghai copper opened lower and went higher, closing slightly lower. The transaction and the position of the position fell slightly, indicating that some profitable short positions left. Shanghai copper main contract CU1301 fell 0.12% on the day. Lun Bronze three closed at 7860.5 US dollars / ton, up 0.1%.
On the macro side, the initial value of the announced HSBC China PMI continued to rebound last month, indicating that the economy is showing signs of stabilization, but given the traditional manufacturing season, it is still uncertain whether the PMI will continue to rebound in November. The announced European PMI initial value in October shows that the European economy continues to deteriorate, especially the German manufacturing and service PMI continues to fall, Germany's Ifo business confidence unexpectedly fell to a 32-month low, indicating that the European economic deterioration has spread to the core countries . In the US, the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI announced in October rebounded slightly, but not as expected. US new home sales in October were slightly better than expected. What is worrying is that the United States has recently exposed the layoffs of large enterprises, which has cast a shadow over the continued recovery of the US economy. The Fed’s interest rate meeting maintained the current monetary policy. Overall, the short-term macro-level is generally pessimistic due to the overall weak PMI data.
In terms of spot, the spot copper price continued to fall yesterday, and the spot discount continued to expand, indicating that the holders were actively shipping under the pessimistic atmosphere. The middle spot price of the Yangtze River has risen to 140 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price of the near-month contract. The price of scrap copper fell slightly. The price difference between the middle price of Foshan 1# Bright Copper (including tax) and the Yangtze River copper was greatly reduced to 293 yuan/ton, which restrained the demand for scrap copper. In terms of inventory, LME registered copper stocks and SHFE registered copper stocks decreased slightly. At present, the spot market has a strong bearish atmosphere and is still based on on-demand purchases.
Copper prices have returned to weakness in the short to medium term, but there are signs of stabilization at key support levels. In operation, the strategic empty singles can be reduced, and the old positions continue to be held; short-term investors can hold them lightly, and if the first support is effective, they will reduce or leave the market. The short-term Shanghai copper main contract support level is 56,500 yuan / ton; the upward pressure is 58500 yuan / ton. Focus on US durable goods orders and third quarter GDP data. (integrity)